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This is the first review of the odds that
bookmakers are offering on the 2011 Eurovision Song Contest
and a projection of the result of the event, if the
bookmakers are correct. Recent years have seen a huge
increase in betting on the Eurovision Song Contest. The combination
of online betting and earlier availability of the preview videos of
the entries now means that there is a very active betting market for
weeks before the competition. In recent years the bookmakers have
been a very good guide to the result of the contest; In 2010 Germany was the joint
favourite (along with Azerbaijan) In 2009 Norway was the hot
favourite from the first set of odds, to the day of the show. In 2008 Russia was the
favourite, seeing off a late surge from Ukraine In 2007 Serbia was the
favourite until the last couple of days when it was displaced by
Ukraine (who finished second) in 2006 A late run of money
saw Finland become one of the top five favourites, while Sweden
displaced Greece as the favourite. In 2005 Greece was the
favourite from the first set of odds to the day of the show. You have to go back to Turkey's
victory in 2003 for the last time that one of the five countries
with the shortest odds, didn't win the contest.
This year's contest is seen as
being the most wide open in years and that is reflected in the odds
being offered by bookmakers. Several bookmakers have also opened
books on the winners of the semi-finals and on other Eurovision bets
and you can see all the odds
here. Using the odds currently on
offer, we have calculated which songs are likely to qualify from the
semi-finals and who is likely to win. SEMI-FINAL ONE Right now, only the
Betfair betting exchange is offering odds on qualification
from the semi-finals, but using the odds being offered, we
can estimate the ten countries that are most likely to
qualify. The first column shows the probability of each
country progressing to the final, based on the odds for that
song alone. As you can see, fourteen songs have a probability
of greater than 50%. This is because of the profit that
those offering the odds are looking to make. In the second
column, we adjust the odds to give a more realistic
picture of the chances of each country. If the odds are correct,
five countries look to be almost certain to be in the final;
Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Finland and Norway. After that
it gets very close, with nine countries in serious
contention for the other five places. As of now, it appears
that Malta, Iceland, San Marino, Switzerland and Portugal
would be surprise qualifiers. However, perhaps the biggest
surprise in this semi-final could be Georgia not qualifying
as every previous Georgian entry has qualified for the
final.
SEMI-FINAL TWO Again we have used the
same formula to convert the odds being offered on Betfair
into a probability for each country qualifying and adjusted
that to compensate for the profit margin. The second semi-final is
seen as the tougher to qualify from and that is confirmed by
the odds that are being offered. Again four countries seem
to have one foot in the final; Bosnia-Herzegovina, Denmark,
Estonia and Sweden. After that things get much tougher to
call and there is only a tiny margin between Moldova, the
song in 6th place and Romania, who are 11th. If the odds are
Romania will just miss out and fail to qualify from the
semi-final for the first time. Ireland's Jedward are rated
7th most likely to qualify, equal with Israel's Dana
International. Interestingly, Slovenia is in the ten most
likely qualifiers, despite the fact that most people haven't
heard the Eurovision version of their song, which is being
sung in English.
THE FINAL To project the final
scoreboard we have taken the ten qualifiers from each
semi-final, based on their qualification odds and added them
to the five automatic finalists (France, Germany, Italy,
Spain and United Kingdom). We have then looked at the odds
being offered by all the bookmakers and betting exchanges
and converted those odds into potential points. Just like in 2010, two
songs have pulled away from the pack, to become the early
betting favourites. Last year, it was Germany and Azerbaijan
and in 2011, it's Estonia and France that are making the
early running. There is only the tiniest of margins between
the two songs, with the U.K., Norway and Germany completing
the Top 5. For Estonia, this is the
second time being the pre-contest favourite. Back in 2000,
Ines and "Once In A Lifetime", was also the early favourite.
You have to go back to 2001 to find the last time France was
rated so high with the bookmakers. Ireland are rated in 12th
place, while Italy's return to the contest, is not exciting
those betting on the result, with Italy being projected to
finish in last place. It's interesting to note that the
songs that are judged to be most likely to qualify, are not
rated among those most likely to win, with
Bosnia-Herzegovina rated 7th, Russia 8th and Turkey only
13th. This is because only a limited number of countries
vote in each semi, while everyone votes in the final. It is
also a lot easier for countries with a lot of neighbours and
a diaspora to count on, to make the Top 10 in the semi, than
it is to convert that advantage into an overall victory.
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