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EUROVISION BETTING

With the individual rehearsals in Belgrade now complete, it's time for another check on the betting for the 2008 Eurovision Song Contest. Once again, you can see all the latest betting odds here.

This is the fourth update for 2008, and once again there have many changes in the market, based on reports coming in from Belgrade. While there is little change in the favourites, the lower ranked songs see some major changes as money starts to go on songs which have a chance to cause an upset on Saturday night next.

Portuguese Entry - Vania 02.jpg

When we first checked the odds in early March, the publicity around the Irish entry "Irelande Douze Points" by Dustin The Turkey meant that Ireland was favourite, but at that time several entries had still to be chosen. When we re-checked the odds after all the entries had been selected the Serbian entry "Oro" sung by Jelena Tomasevic had taken over the favourite's mantle, with Armenia and Russia close behind. Our last check saw Russia's Dima Bilan take over as favourite with "Believe", and in the past month it has become an even bigger favourite for victory.  

When it comes to the qualifiers, we are now seeing some changes in both semi-finals. In the first semi-final, Andorra has been squeezed out of the Top 10 by Azerbaijan, while in the second semi-final, Malta has lost out as Portugal's Vania Fernandes (left). 

As always, there are now a lot of other bets that you can make, outside of just putting your money on the outright winner. You can have a look at those bets here. For this week's "Bet Of The Week" we go for Spain, who are still available at 28/1. This is a good each way bet, as you win money even if the song finishes as low as fourth. 

Based on the odds currently on offer, this is how the final scoreboard will look next Saturday night. The figures in brackets are the projected points for each country. The arrows indicate how each country is doing based on the previous review of the odds.

 FINAL SCOREBOARD

Four songs have now pulled a significant distance away from the rest of the field and it looks like Serbia will be the only country to stop a former member of the USSR winning, as Russia, Armenia and Ukraine fill the other three slots in the Top 4.

While Greece has made a major move in the odds, it has only managed to increase one slot on the table, displacing Ireland in 6th place. Other major movers are Spain and Bosnia-Herz. Going in the other direction and losing support are Romania and the U.K., which now looks like being last based on the current bookmakers' odds.

Only Spain of "The Big 4" looks like making any impact in this year's contest, with France and Germany joining the U.K. in the bottom 5.

Interestingly the question of which countries will lose out at the start of the running order in semi-final two seems to be none, if bookmakers are correct as Iceland, Sweden, Turkey and Ukraine are all tipped to reach the final.

 1 : RUSSIA (386)   13 : LATVIA (59)
 2 : SERBIA (324)  14 : NORWAY (33)
 3 : ARMENIA (300)  15 : AZERBAIJAN (26)
 4 : UKRAINE (297)  16 : ICELAND (26)
 5 : SWEDEN (190) 16 : SWITZERLAND (26)
 6 : GREECE (172) 18 : PORTUGAL (24)
 7 : IRELAND (135) 18 : FINLAND (24)
 8 : SPAIN (86) 18 : GEORGIA (24)
 9 : TURKEY (77)  21 : FRANCE (19)
10 : BOSNIA-HERZ. (76) 22 : ALBANIA (17) 
11 : BULGARIA (70) 23 : ISRAEL (15) 
12 : ROMANIA (68) 24 : GERMANY (12)
  25 : UNITED KINGDOM (8)

If the bookmakers are correct, this is how the semi-finals will turn out. It is interesting that there is no change to the songs that the bookmakers are seeing as the most likely qualifiers from each semi-final, however both Azerbaijan (semi-final one) and P0rtugal (semi-final two) are now into the qualification places. Based on the bookmakers odds, the first semi-final, which contains Ireland, is still considered to be the stronger semi, although few in Belgrade would agree.

SEMI-FINAL 1

SEMI-FINAL 2

 1 : RUSSIA 11 : BELGIUM  1 : UKRAINE 11 : CROATIA
 2 : ARMENIA 12 : POLAND  2 : SWEDEN  12 : MALTA
 3 : GREECE 13 : SLOVENIA  3 : TURKEY 13 : DENMARK
 4 : IRELAND 14 : ANDORRA  4 : BULGARIA 14 : HUNGARY
 5 : BOSNIA-HERZ. 15 : ESTONIA  5 : LATVIA 15 : BELARUS
 6 : ROMANIA 16 : NETHERLANDS  6 : ICELAND 16 : CYPRUS
 7 : NORWAY 17 : MOLDOVA  7 : SWITZERLAND 17 : FYR MACEDONIA
 8 : AZERBAIJAN 18 : SAN MARINO  8 : PORTUGAL 18 : LITHUANIA
 9 : FINLAND 19 : MONTENEGRO  9 : GEORGIA 19 : CZECH REP.
10 : ISRAEL 10 : ALBANIA