Final Draw Analysis

All Kinds Of Everything
The Irish Eurovision Website

BELGRADE 2008 FINAL & VOTING ORDER ANALYSIS

As part of the annual Heads of Delegation meeting in the host city, which this year was staged in Belgrade on March 17th and 18th, the draw for the three Eurovision shows (two semi-finals and final) in show broadcast on Serbian television channel RTS and streamed live on the internet. You can find the "All KInds Of Everything" analysis of the two semi-finals draws, on the links above.

The second semi-final is considered by many to be the more open and competitive of the two semis, with few if any guaranteed finalists. Consequently the draw may be even more key to the chances of the ninteen competing countries on Thursday May 22nd.

The show hosted by this year's Eurovision presenters Jovana Jankovic and Željko Joksimovic and again it featured "wildcards" for the first three countries drawn. These wildcards allowed those countries to choose their positions in the running order. In the second semi-final, the wildcards went to Macedonia (who chose #18), Portugal (who chose #19, the final slot in the running order) and Denmark, who broke the trend slightly by drawing #13, their Head of Delegation, claiming that it was a lucky number.

	2. UNITED KINGDOM
	Iceland opening the 2003 Eurovision Song Contest, the last year of the old competition format. A Top 10 result meant automatic qualification in 2004, but for the last three years, Iceland has failed to qualify from the semi-finals. The opening song has a 50/50 qualification record in semi-finals, so this may be the year when Iceland is finally drawn from one of those ten golden envelopes.
	4. GERMANY
	After a series of late slots, Sweden gets the worst possible draw in 2008. None of the four songs which were performed second in the running order has qualified from the semis and coming after a similar uptempo Icelandic song makes it even harder for Charlotte Nilsson Perrelli. However on the one time Sweden were in a Eurovision semi, in 2006, another former contest winner Carola, qualified with ease, albeit from a late draw.
	19. FRANCE
	Turkey has competed in the last two Eurovision semis, and has qualified on both occasions, thanks in no small measure to immigrant votes, which are generally not available to it this year. Had Eurovision stuck to the same formula, Turkey would be in the final. Considering that most of the supports are involved in the first semi, and that no song has ever qualified from #3 in the draw, it's a double dose for bad luck for Turkey.
	22. SPAIN
	Like Turkey, Ukraine is another recent Eurovision winner with a 100% qualification record from the semi. Ruslana went on to win the contest in 2004 and in 2006, Tina Karol qualified. Considering its an early draw, #4 has a good record, with qualifications for two other ex-members of the USSR; Moldova in 2005 and Belarus in 2007. Coming so close to a similar Swedish entry will be an interesting challenge for Ukraine.
	23. SERBIA
	It took the novelty entry "We Are The Winners" in 2006 to give Lithuania its only qualification from the semi, and its best ever Eurovision result. The previou year, an early draw saw Laura & The Lovers come last in the semi. The #5 slot in the running order has produced only qualifier, but it was a male ballad from a Baltic country; Latvia in 2005. Perhaps this is the only good omen for Lithuania this year.

While there is good news for many countries, one competitor who might not be celebrating is 1999 Eurovision winner Charlotte Nilsson Perrelli seen on the left celebrating her victory in the Swedish Melodifestival. Getting #2 brought an end to a run of good draws for Swededish entries.

The rest of the draw threw up its usual share of interest points, and below we analyse the draw and rank the chances of each country qualifying based on their previous semi-final record and the previous qualifiers based on running order. For the last five entries in each semi-final, we also use their position relative to the end of the the running order, as it's far more significant that the 19th song in each semi this year closes the show, rather than being 19th in a longer running order as in previous years. We total both scores to get our "chances of qualifying" score shown on the left hand column. As this analysis is based on previous results only, the impact of this year's songs cannot be factored into the equasion. Again one thing which has yet to be confirmed is the number of advertising breaks in he semis and this could have a serious impact on some countries chances of qualifying, including Ireland's.