BELGRADE 2008 SEMI-FINAL 1 PROJECTION

Above you can see our projected voting table, based on the votes cast by each country since 1998, and highlighted in blue are the nine countries that we would expect to qualify based on those scores. Below you can see the nine potential qualifiers in descending order;

Russia (108) Romania (94) Greece (91) Estonia (77) Israel (75) Armenia (75) Finland (73) Netherlands (73) Norway (72) Jury Selection

Here's a little background on the votes, and why we think that we probably already know three qualifiers (Russia, Romania & Greece) from this semi-final, even before they choose their songs.

	ANDORRA has yet to rach the Eurovision final, but the best news from the draw for the Andorrans was that Spain would be showing their semi-final, and was very likely to award them a top mark and based on previous years they should also pick up a scattering of other low points, but they will once again have their work cut out to qualify. With neither of their neighbours or Portugal, another country which Andorra tends to favour competing in this semi-final, its Finland who could get their top points, but Netherlands and Romania won't be far behind.
	ARMENIA has a 100% qualifying record from its two previous Eurovision participations, and our projection says that they'll make it a three in a row. While Georgia, their biggest supporters are in the other semi-final, Russia, Netherlands and Belgium all have large Armenian emigrant groups, while Poland, lacking most of its favoured neighbours may also exchange high points with Armenia. When voting, we expect Armenians to go for Russia and Greece, but don't expect anything for neighbours Azerbaijan, as the countries are still technically at war.
	AZERBAIJAN  is one of two countries making its Eurovision debut in this semi-final. The country is bordered by Turkey and Georgia, who are in the other semi-final, Russia which would be expected to vote for it and Armenia, who most likely won't, for political reasons. Azerbaijan is culturally very close to Turkey and many people are predicting that the Turkish emigrant votes in places like Germany, Netherlands and Belgium, will transfer to Azerbaijan and if this happens, it could give the Azeri entry a head start for qualifying for the final.
	BELGIUM has never managed to qualify under the semi-final system and our projection says that this won't change in 2008. Almost all of Belgium's biggest supporters are either in the other semi-final or are automatically qualified, leaving neighbours Netherlands and perhaps surprisingly Poland as the Belgians best chance for getting high points. When it comes to Belgian votes, the Dutch could get a pay-back, while Armenian emigrants could also make their pressence felt.
	BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA has been separed by from most of its biggest supporters, with Croatia, Turkey, Sweden and Denmark in the other semi, Serbia showing that show, and Austria not competing this year. The Bosnians will therefore be hoping for other former Yugslav neighbours Montenegro and Slovenia to support them, as well as Bosnian emigrants in Norway. When it comes to voting, Bosnia is likely to return the favour to its neighbours and also give Greece high points. However based on out projection, Bosnia may not make the final.
	ESTONIA is one of a handful of countries to have failed to qualify from the semi-finals, every year since they were introduced in 2004. However our projection says that this is the year that will change. Despite the fact that neigbours Latvia and Lithuania are in the other semi-final, Estonia should get top marks from neighbours Finland and perhaps more surprisingly Ireland. When it comes to voting, expect more neighbourly trends with Finland, Russia and Norway picking up the top points.
	FINLAND is likely to swap its top points with Estonia and with Norway and more unexpecedly Andorra also helping out, it looks like Finland is a good bet to qualify for this year's final. Finland is likely to vote for Russia and many feel that the Azeri entry is the kind of oddball performance that seems to appeal to Finns. Beware however that a lot of Finland's points were gained by Lordi, and these may not come Finland's way in 2008 and with Sweden and Denmark in the other semi-final, it could be a very close call.
	GREECE has the best record in the contest since the format changed in 2004, and our projection predicts another easy passage into the final in May, despite he fact that some of Greece's biggest supporters including Cyprus, Albania, Bulgaria and the U.K. are involved in the other semi-final. Greece will be hoping for good points from Armenia, Romania and Russia, and when it comes to voting, these countries will also expect to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Greek televote.
	IRELAND may have the best Eurovision history, but the last few years have been generally disappointing and with all of Ireland's biggest supporters, including the U.K., Lithuania, Hungary and Portugal being involved in the second semi-final, it looks like an Irish entry may not qualify, for the second time in four years. With Irish televoters favourites, the U.K. and Lithuania not in this semi-final field, the Irish points could go to Estonia, Belgium, a country traditionally favoured by the Irish or even Poland, which has a large emigrant population in Ireland.
	ISRAEL got mixed news from the draw. While counries like Greece, Russia and Romania, who tend to favour Israel can once again support them in 2008, Turkey and Portugal are in the other semi-final, and France (Israel's biggest supporters) is also showing that semi. Nevertheless, our projection says that Israel should just about qualify. Russia, Romania and perhaps more surprisingly the Netherlands are likely to attract the votes of the Israeli public, based on recent contests.
	MOLDOVA has appeared in the last three Eurovision finals, but our projection suggests that they will miss out this year. Neighbours Russia and Romania are likely to be Moldova's biggest supporters based on previous voting trends and Bosnia could also be sending high points their way, but after that, it looks like it will be little or nothing from the rest of Europe. Romania is virtually guaranteed twelve points from Moldova, with Russia getting the ten. After that other former members of the USSR like Armenia and Estonia and Azerbaijan could get get Moldovan support.
	MONTENEGRO made is debut as an independent country in Helsinki in 2007, but unlike neighbours Serbia who went on to win the competition, Montenegro stuggled for support and and failed to qualify. With only two sets of votes (semi and final from 2007) to go on, projecting Montenegrin votes is quite difficult, however other former Yugoslav neighbours like Bosnia-Herz. and Slovenia are likely to swap their high points with Montenegro, but a much better entry than 2007 will be needed, if Montenegro is to progress to the final.
	NETHERLANDS has only one qualification from a semi-final, back in 2004. Despite being trapped in the semi for the last three years, our projection says that things will get better in Belgrade. As well as top points from neighbours Belgium, Netherlands tends to pick up lots of low points, which might not be enough to make it out of a 26 song semi-final but with only 19 countries competing in this year's semis, things get easier. Belgium would expect to be paid back in high points and Armenian immigrants could also provide points to their native country.
	NORWAY also has only one qualification from the sem-final, when WigWam progressed in Kyiv in 2005. Like the Dutch, Norway's entries tend to pick up lots of low points and with Norway, Ireland and Estonia in this semi-final, Norway may not miss their biggest supporters like Sweden, Iceland and Denmark. Finland and Ireland will be hoping for big points from Norway, but the top vote is like to go the Bosnia-Herz., due in no small part to loyal Norwegian based immigrants.
	POLAND is another country that has never seen its name in one of the ten famous qualifing envelopes, but it has narrowly missed out on two occasions, finishing 11th in the semi-final in 2005 and 2006. Our projection says that Poles will be disappointed once again. Germany, Armenia, Romania and Ireland could once again be Poland's biggest contributors, although Poland may not be as generous to Ireland, and Germany is a guaranteed finalist, when it comes to voting and may once again give high points to Armenia and Belgium.
	ROMANIA is a virtually certain qualifier from the semi-final, based on previous voting trends. Neighbours Moldova almost guarantee televe points, with Israel, Russia and Spain's large Romanian immigrant community also providing high points. Indeed only Macedonia, of Romania's biggest supporters is missing from this semi-final. Romanian votes tend to stay in the east and Moldova will probably get the twelve, with Greece, Russia and Poland also likely to score well.
	RUSSIA is another country that can plan its return from Belgrade for the Sunday after the final, as another virtually guaranteed qualifier. Indeed many people feel that after coming close to victory in the past couple of years, they may be brining the trophy back with them. It wouldn't be surprising if the Russian entry gets votes from every country, with Greece, Finland and Estonia supplying high points. When Russians come to vote, expect Romania, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Greece to pick up to big points.
	SAN MARINO is the second newcomer in this year's contest, so it's impossible to use previous votes as a guide to how they might do. Nevertheless, it's clear that the first Sanmarinese entry may face an uphill battle to progress. San Marino has only one neighbour and Italy isn't taking part in Eurovision and other tiny countries like Andorra and Monaco have failed to come out of the semi-finals. Don't be suprised in San Marino use a jury rather than a televote, as the EBU dictates that a televote is only valid when a significant number of people vote.
	SLOVENIA final qualified from the semi-final in 2007, after three previous failures and our projection says that they might just miss out again. Only other former members of Yugoslavia: Bosnia-Herz. and Montenegro would be likely to give Slovenia high points as other Balkan neighbours like Croatia, Macedonia, Serbia and Albania are involved in the second semi-final. Slovenia is likely to pay back its neighbours and also help the cause of Estonia and Norway to progress to the final.
	GERMANY is one of two members of the "Big 4" that will be showing this semi-final and consequently German televiewers will have a say in deciding who progresses to the final. Based on previous trends, Poland, Greece and Bosnia-Herz., will do well in the German televote and don't be surprised if Turkish immigrants who won't be able to vote for their own entry, because it is competing in the second semi-final, switch their support to Azerbaijan, a country with strong cultural links to Turkey.
	SPAIN is the other member of the "Big 4 showing this semi-final and Spanish televiewers will also have a say in the result. This is great news for Andorra and Romania, two countries that have done very well in Spanish televotes in recent years. Indeed with a well known Spanish singer and songwriter responsible for the Andorran entry, they should be guaranteed the twelve points.