BELGRADE 2008 SEMI-FINAL 1 DRAW ANALYSIS

This is only Montenegro's second Eurovision entry as a separate country, having finished 23rd in 2007. In 2004 and 2005, the show opener did not qualify from the semi-final, but Armenia in 2006 and then Bulgaria in 2007 both made the final, having opened the show. This is a mixed draw for Montenegro but being the show opener can also generate extra interest.

This will be Israel's fourth semi-final and they failed to qualify in 2004 and in 2007, when they were also drawn at #2 in the running order. Israel has had a run of early draws in the semi-finals, with #7 in 2005 being the latest and only successful outing, when Shiri Maymon qualified. In four years of semis no country has qualified from the #2 position in the draw. Consequently this is a very bad draw for Israel.

The first of this year's novelty entries will be trying to break Estonia's miserable recent run of failing the qualify from all four previous semi-finals. Also #3 is another awful slot as no song has qualified from this position in the running order, most notably Evridiki failing for Cyprus in 2007. It was also #3 in the semi that saw the last Eurovision entry to score "nil points", Switzerland in 2004. An awful draw for Estonia.

Both of Moldova's previous semi-final appearances in 2005 and 2007 have resulted in qualifying and then going on to make the Top 10 in the final. Moldova's only poor result came from their only automatic finalist in 2006. This is Moldova's second time getting this draw after Zdob si Zdub in 2005. Belarus also qualified in 2007, but Andorra finished last after performing fourth in the 2006. A reasonably good draw for Moldova.

Both of this year's debut countries are in the first semi-final and with no previous history to go on, we look at how other debutants have got on in previous semi-finals. Six have qualified (Albania, Serbia & Montenegro, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia and Serbia) and five have failed (Andorra, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Rep. and Montenegro). Latvia in 2005 is the only qualifier from #5 in the draw, so not a good omen for San Marino. 

Azerbaijan follows neighbours Armenia and Georgia, making its debut and both made the final on their first attempt. Unusually after being given a "wildcard" that allowed them to choose their position in the draw, Azerbaijan chose the #7 rather than the strategically better late slots. This position has only produced one qualifier, Israel in 2005 and last year Montenegro made their debut in this slot, failing to qualify.  

Having failed to qualify from the first three semi-finals, Slovenia finally made it through in Helsinki in 2007. Malta in 2004 and Ireland's Brian Kennedy in 2006 qualified from #8 in the draw, but there were two high profile failures with Belarus in 2005 and Switzerland in 2007 both failing to make it despite being among the favourites to win the contest. All in all far from the best draw for Slovenia

This will be Norway's third Eurovision semi, having qualified with WigWam in 2005 and failing with Guri Schanke in 2007. The #9 slot in the semi-final has a poor record, with only Moldova qualifying in 2007 and they only barely made it, finishing 10th in Helsinki. This draw slot has been a graveyard of female sung ballads, with Monaco in 2004, Netherlands in 2005 and Cyprus in 2006 all failing, a poor indicator for Norway.

Poland is another country that has failed to qualify from the Eurovision semi-final, having come very close in both 2005 and 2006, when they finished 11th. Not since Greece's Sakis Rouvas in 2004, has a song performed 10th in the running order made it to the final. The three songs that have failed since then, have all been sung by females, Iceland in 2005, Monaco in 2006 and Netherlands in 2007. A poor draw for Poland.

Ireland is another country with a 50/50 record in the semis, with Donna & Joe missing out in 2005 and Brian Kennedy getting through in 2006. Every other year, the song performed at #11 qualifies; Ukraine qualified and went on to win the contest in 2004, and Macedonia qualified in 2006. However Belgium in 2005 and Albania in 2007 failed to make it. One consideration is that in 2008, this may be the slot that comes after the break, which might not be good news for Ireland.  

Andorra made its Eurovision debut in 2004, and is still waiting to qualify for the final, coming closest in 2007, when Anonymous finished 12th and choosing thir position in the running order. Surprisingly not one song performed at #12 has qualified, with Denmark's DQ, being a high profile casualty in 2007. Coming after Ireland's high profile novelty act simply is another downside of a terrible draw for Andorra.

This is Bosnia's third time in the semi-final, and they have made it through in both 2004 with Deen and in 2006 with Hari Mata Hari, both from late draws. This year, with few Balkan neighbours in support it may be a little more difficult for Bosnia. Only one song performed at #13 has failed to qualify, Croatia in 2007, another Balkan country that had a 100% qualification record up to that point. Therefore it's mixed omens for Bosnia. 

Armenia made its debut in 2006 and qualified after opening the semi in Athens. After finishing in the Top 10, qualification was automatic in 2007. Draw position #14 produced qualifiers in 2004, 2005 and 2006, but Poland missed out in 2007. It's worth noting that the qualifiers from this slot have gone on to good results in the final; Cyprus in 2004 (5th), Romania in 2005 (3rd) and Russia in 2006 (2nd). A good draw for Armenia.

Netherlands qualified from the first Eurovision semi in 2004, after Reunion performed last, but since then its been three failures. The good news this year is that #15 in the semi has always qualified; Macedonia, Hungary and Ukraine were followed by Serbia in 2007, with the song that won the contest. However the only song that was performed 5th to last that made it was Croatia in 2004. An ok draw for the Dutch.  

Finland had two semi-final failures before Lordi qualified in 2006 from the #16 slot and went on to win in Athens,however this is the only song from this position that has qualified and Finland failed itself failed a year earlier, when Geir Ronning missed out. Sweden's Carola also in 2006 is the only song from 4th to last to have qualified. With only Lordi as a good omen, this is far from a good draw for the Finns.  

Romania has only taken part in one previous semi-final when Luminita Angel sailed through in 2005, going on to finish 3rd in Kyiv. The Macedonian entry in 2005 is the only qualifier from #17, but Portugal came close last year, finishing 11th. Two songs performed third to last have qualified, Serbia & Montenegro in 2004 and Turkey in 2007. This might look like a great draw for Romania, but it's not as great as it might first appear.  

Russia drew a "wildcard" and chose its own draw position. Russia's only previous appearance in the semi-finals came in 2006, when 2008 entrant Dima Bilan finished 3rd and went on to improve that to 2nd in the final. Three out of four songs performed at #18 qualified with only Andorra in 2005 missing out. Three out four songs performed 2nd to last qualified, with Austria the only losers in 2007. A great draw for Russia.   

Greece is another country appearing in only its second semi, after Sakis Rouvas in 2004 started a run of Top 10 results going on to finish 3rd in Istanbul. Considering it's always been a late draw it's surprising that only one qualifier has come from #19; Switzerland's Vanilla Ninja in 2005. Even more surprising for Greek hopes is the fact that half songs performed last in the semi, missed out; Poland in 2005 and Iceland in 2006. However Netherlands in 2004 and Turkey in 2007 did make it. Again not the greatest draw for the Greeks.