BELGRADE 2008 SEMI-FINAL 2 PROJECTION

Above you can see our projected voting table, based on the votes cast by each country since 1998, and highlighted in red are the nine countries that we would expect to qualify based on those scores. Below you can see the nine potential qualifiers in descending order;

Ukraine (103) Hungary (99) Bulgaria (95) Sweden (93) Malta (90) Latvia (84) Croatia (82) Belarus (77) FYR Macedonia (76) Jury Selection

Here's a little more background on the votes.

	ALBANIA finds itself in the same semi-final as the three of the countries which it has favoured the most; Macedonia, Malta and Turkey. When it comes to receiving votes, Macedonia tends to return the favour while SWitzerland's Albania diaspora will also help. With other Balkan countries like Croatia, Bulgaria and Turkey may also help, don't expect huge votes from Serbia, who will also be voting in this semi-finals as they have never been strong supporters of Albania and recent poitical events in the region may not help.
	BELARUS.  With Russia competing in the first semi-final, it looks like Belarus's top points (which normally go Russia's way) will go to Ukraine, even if you don't consider the fact that this year's Ukrainian entry was written by the team that wrote the 2006 entry for Belarus. Other former Soviet neighbours, Georgia (who's singer tried to represent Belarus in 2006) and Latvia will also get Belarussian votes. All of these countries are likely to vote for for Balarus and with a scatering of other votes Belarus should just about qualify.
	BULGARIA televoters are more difficult to predict, with Greece and Armenia in the other semi-final, Bulgaria's top points are likely to be going to either Belarus, Cyprus or Macedonia, with other Balkan neighbours also scoring well. If previous history is anything to go by, Bulgaria will either get high points or nothing from most countries in this semi-final and perhaps surprisingly, it looks very likely Bulgaria will once again grab one of the ten qualifying slots, based on only three year's of voting history.
	CROATIA has a great qualification record, only missing out in Helsinki in 2007. If Croatia votes as it has done in the past, then Macedonia is virually guaranteed top points with Malta and Albania also likely to score well. Few if any votes will go north or west of the Alps. Croatia may not get the points points from any other country, but is likely to pick up solid points from most of their rivals and should make it into the Top 10 countries that make it through to the final.
	CYPRUS doesn't have Greece or most its other favouritess to vote for in this semi-final. The only exception is Bulgaria who have tended to do well from Cyprus and consequently will be favourites to take top points. Cypriots may be sorry to not have the guaranteed 12 points from Greece, but looking at this in another way, Cyprus may now benefit from the Greek diaspora vote in places like the U.K. Fellow Mediterranean islanders Malta may also help, but our projection show Cyprus coming up short for the Top 10.
	CZECH REPUBLIC made its Eurovision debut in Helsinki in 2007 but did very poorly, finishing last in the semi-final, only gaining votes from Estonia. Consequently with such a poor record and Estonia in the other semi-final, we have nothing to suggest that any country will vote for the Czech Republic. With only one year's voting history behind them, its difficult to call where the Czech votes will go, but fellow Eastern European countries like Bulgaria, Macedonia and Ukraine see,m most likely to benefit.
	DENMARK is one of a trio Nordic of Nordic countries in this semi-final and therefore Iceland and Sweden will be vying for Denmark's top points. Perhaps more surprisingly Malta and the Turkish diaspora may also be a big factor in the Danish televote. When it comes to getting points, Iceland and Sweden should return the favour,  but after that Denmark may struggle to get enough of the high scores to make it through to the final and may lose out on the final once again.
	GEORGIA is another country that made it's Eurovision debut in 2007, but unlike the Czech Republic, it qualified for the final, and came close to finishing in the Top 10 in that show. Based on its two sets of votes last year, Hungary and former Soviet neighbours Ukraine and Belarus are likely to get high points from Georgia, especially with Armenia being in the other semi-final. However when it comes to getting votes, Georgia could well struggle and our projection shows them falling short of the final on this occasion.
	HUNGARY has a 100% qualification record and would therefore be one of our tips to easily make it through once again this year. Almost all of Hungary's favoured countries are in the other semi-final, meaning that Bulgaria and more suprisingly Iceland are likley to do well. With so many Eastern European countries in this semi-final, Hungary should pick up a lot of support from its neighbours and even if it were to fail to make it automatically, the song could have a strong chance of being the jury selection.
	ICELAND is virtually guaranteed to give its top points to Denmark, based on previous trends, with Sweden likely to pick up the ten. After that the bulk of Iceland's votes could go east. With three successive semi-final failures in the last three years, things don't look good for Iceland to qualify in Belgrade and even with support from its Nordic compatriots and perhaps high points from Hungary, it seems like Iceland will be heading home after opening the Thursday night semi-final.
	LATVIA is another country where we are virtually certain to already know where the top points are going, with neighbours Lithuania being the beneficiaries. After that Ukraine and Malta may fight it out with Switzerland for the other high points, rather than neighbours Belarus, who are not favoured by Latvia. The former Soviet neighbours should give a lot of ponts to Latvia, if history is repeated in Belgrade while Swedish televoters may favour Latvia, given that Swedes wrote their song. Therefore Latvia looks like a very good bet for qualification.
	LITHUANIA may be one of the bookmakers' outsiders, but they dis make it through on the last occasion in which they were in the semi-final, although this year's entry could not be more different to "We Are The Winners". The old USSR solidarity should come into play when Lithuania votes, with Latvia, Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus vying for top points. While neighbours Latvia and Belarus are likely to return the favour, uKrainer and Georgia may not be so generous and consequently we don't predict qualification for Lithuania on this occasion.
	FYR MACEDONIA is one of the most obvious beneficiaries of neighbourly voting and many see their qualification as a measure of the success of the new format. If the new system works, some suggest Macedonia won't make it though in Belgrade as it has fewer neighours that can vote for it. However our projection sees Macedonia qualifying again, with top points from neighbours Albania, Croatia, Bulgara, Serbia  and Turkey. All of these countries (with the exception of Serbia who are automatically qualified) should see Macedonia returning the favour.
	MALTA being an island, far from another competing country has no obvious neighbours and doesn't have a significant diaspora, however our projections predicts that they will qualify once again after picking up steady if unspectacular votes from almost every country in this semi-final. Malta will also be hoping to pick up high points from the U.K. who will be voting in this semi-final. If previous voting figures are anything to go by, Maltese votes will tend to go East rather than West, but some feel that a bitterness from not qualifying in 2007 may change that.
	PORTGUAL may finally qualify for the final, if fan polls are anything to go by, but our projection is only based on how votes have gone in the past and consequently, we see Portuguese hopes being dashed for the fifth successive year.  The only significant support is likely to come from Portuguese imigrants in France and Switzerland, although the fact that Portugal has a Croatian songwriter may help get points from there. When it comes to voting Portugal is virtually certain to award its top points to Ukraine, but after that its wide open.
	SWEDEN is back in the semi-final and once again a former Eurovision winner is tasked with getting them through to the final. We predict an easy qualification based on previous voting statistics, with Denmark, Iceland, Malta and U.K. all providing high points. With Norway and Finland in the other semi, Swedish votes are likely to help fellow Nordic countries Denmark and Iceland. Quite where Sweden's substantial ex-Yugoslav votes go is harder to guess in the semi-final.
	SWITZERLAND like last year, seemed to be an early favourite to qualify, but our projection suggests that they will fall short once again. Only Malta, and perhjaps surprisingly Latvia are likely to supply the Swiss with significant votes, while on the other hand Swiss televoters are likely to favour the Balkans but they will see little coming back to them. A similar situation in Austria is apparently why their neighours have decided to give Eurovision a break this year.
	TURKEY is the one country that really suffered through the new format. Almost all of the countries that favour Turkish entries cannot give them votes in this semi with Netherlands, Belgium, Romania, Bosnia and Germany alll being involved in the other semi-final and Austria withdrawing. Instead Turkey will have to depend on Macedonia and Albania together with Turks in France and Switzerland to get them through. When Turkey votes, expect Macedonia and Malta to do well.
	UKRAINE is going to win this semi-final according to our projection and it has nothing to do with the song, it's just based on previous voting trends. While former Soviet neighbours Belarus, Georgia, Latvia and Lithuania will supply the bulk of its votes, we wouldn't be surprised if every country in this semi-final ends up giving some points to Ukraine. When it comes to voting, Ukraine is another country that isn't likely to send many points north or west of the Alps.
	FRANCE will be showing this semi-final and consequently gets to vote. This is likely to result in a battle between two big immigrant populations; Portugal versus France, with Portugal likely to come out on top. After that it's much harder to call and with this being the first Eurovision Song Contest without a song sung in French, in the history of the competition, interest may be quite low, meaning some rather bizarre results.
	SERBIA as hosts will be showing both semi-finals, but will only be voting in the second one. Neighbours are likely to dominate, with Macedonia, Montenegro Hungary and Croatia all gaining high points. However don't expect too many Serbian votes for another neighbour, Albania, due to the political situantion in Kosovo.
	UNITED KINGDOM will also be showing both semi-finals, but unfortunatly for Ireland, it will only be voting in the second semi. Watch out for big U.K. votes for former British colonies, Cyprus and Malta as well as support for the Nordic trio of Sweden, Denmark and Iceland, while Latvia's Swedish written song could also do well.