BELGRADE 2008 FINAL & VOTING ORDER ANALYSIS

Iceland opening the 2003 Eurovision Song Contest, the last year of the old competition format. A Top 10 result meant automatic qualification in 2004, but for the last three years, Iceland has failed to qualify from the semi-finals. The opening song has a 50/50 qualification record in semi-finals, so this may be the year when Iceland is finally drawn from one of those ten golden envelopes. 

After a series of late slots, Sweden gets the worst possible draw in 2008. None of the four songs which were performed second in the running order has qualified from the semis and coming after a similar uptempo Icelandic song makes it even harder for Charlotte Nilsson Perrelli. However on the one time Sweden were in a Eurovision semi, in 2006, another former contest winner Carola, qualified with ease, albeit from a late draw. 

Turkey has competed in the last two Eurovision semis, and has qualified on both occasions, thanks in no small measure to immigrant votes, which are generally not available to it this year. Had Eurovision stuck to the same formula, Turkey would be in the final. Considering that most of the supports are involved in the first semi, and that no song has ever qualified from #3 in the draw, it's a double dose for bad luck for Turkey.

Like Turkey, Ukraine is another recent Eurovision winner with a 100% qualification record from the semi. Ruslana went on to win the contest in 2004 and in 2006, Tina Karol qualified. Considering its an early draw, #4 has a good record, with qualifications for two other ex-members of the USSR; Moldova in 2005 and Belarus in 2007. Coming so close to a similar Swedish entry will be an interesting challenge for Ukraine.

It took the novelty entry "We Are The Winners" in 2006 to give Lithuania its only qualification from the semi, and its best ever Eurovision result. The previou year, an early draw saw Laura & The Lovers come last in the semi. The #5 slot in the running order has produced only qualifier, but it was a male ballad from a Baltic country; Latvia in 2005. Perhaps this is the only good omen for Lithuania this year.

This is the fourth semi-final for Switzerland, having finished last in 2004, qualifying and finishing in the final Top 10 with Vanilla Ninja in 2005 and being one of the big surprise non-qualifiers in 2007 with DJ Bobo, a song that was performed at #8 in the draw. Israel in 2005 is the only country to qualify from this draw position, so it looks like another struggle for the Swiss.  

Trying hard rock band Kabat as their Eurovision debut act in 2007 was a disaster for the Czech Republic, who finish last in the semi-final in Helsinki. This year's entry couldn't be more different, but considering that Malta in 2004 and Ireland in 2006 have qualified from #8, it may not be the worst draw for the Czechs, although you must consider than uptempo pop songs failed for Belarus in 2005 and Switzerland in 2007. 

Belarus is rumoured to be the country that is most upset at the format change for this year's contest, having finally (but briefly) secured an automatic finalist ticket after finishing in the Top 10 in Helsinki. This came after three years of failure, including Angelica Agurbash's expensive faile in 2006, from a similar draw of #8. Moldova qualified from this slot last year, following a run of three failures in the previous years.

Latvia has ridden a rollercoaster of results since joining Eurovision in 2001. In three participations in the semi-finals, Latvia failed in 2004, suceeded in 2005 with Valters & Kaža who went on to finish in the Top 10 in the final, and qualified again in 2007 thanks to Bonoparti.lv., who had the advantafe of performing last in the Helsinki semi-final. Only Greece in 2004 has qualified from this slot, so not a great draw for Latvia. 

After Two successful qualifications in 2004 and 2005, Croatia automatically qualified for the final in 2006, after the withdrawal of Serbia & Montenegro. However in 2007, Croatia's lucjk ran out, and in they missed out on participating in the Eurovision final, for the first time, since making their debut in 1993. The #11 slot as a 50/50 mix of success and failure, making this a mix bag of a draw for Croatia. 

Bulgaria failed to qualify, in its first two attempts in 2005 and 2006, but finally after opening the semi, made the final in 2007. Following the success of "Voda" in Helsinki, Bulgaria would have been an automatic qualifier this year, had the format not changed. Unfortunatly for bulgaria, not one of the four semi-finalists that have performed at #12 in the running, has qualified, making this mid running position bad news for Bulgaria 

Getting a wildcard and then choosing #13, was a bit of a surprise for Denmark, especially when you consider that DQ failed from a similar #12 draw in 2007. Denmark has competed in three semi-finals, but only qualified once, when Jakob Sveistrup made the final, after a late draw. Perhaps Denmark's motivation for choosing this slot was the fact that three of the four song performed here made the final.

Georgia qualified from an early slot in the starting order on its Eurovision debut in 2007 and qualified for the final. Poland in 2007 is the only country to have failed to qualify from the #14 slot, meaning that Geogia looks like one of the more likely qualifiers in Belgrade in May. And considering that every song that has qualified from this slot has gone on to a Top 5 finish in the final, who knows how good it can get for Georgia.

Hungary has a 100% qualification record, with NOX qualifying in 2005, also from the #15 slot and Magdi Ruzsa doing the same in Helsinki in 2007. Hungary did not compete in 2004 or 2006. Every song performed at #15 in the semi has qualified, but conversely the only song that was performed 5th to last that made it was Croatia in 2004. A reasonable draw for Hungary.

Malta has had some very good and very bad results in recent years. Qualification and a Top 10 result in the final in 2004 was followed up by Chiara finishing second in 2005, before Maltese fortunes faltered, finishing last in 2006 and failing to qualify in 2007. This is not a great draw for Malta, when you consider that Finland in 2006 is the only qualifier from #16 and Sweden in the same year, the only qualifier from fourth to last. 

The two Mediterranean islands are draw together, which is hardly good news considering the ethnic cabaret nature of both their songs. Cyprus has only qualified once in three attempts, back in 2004. The only qualifier from #17 was the Macedonian entry in 2005, but Serbia & Montenegro in 2004 and Turkey in 2007 qualified after being third to last. 

The Macedonia Head of Delegation chose this slot, and she made a very good choice. Macedonia has a 100% qualification record, making it out of every semi since 2004, but never going on to land a Top 10 finish in the final. Since 2004 only Andorra in 2005 is the only country to perform, at #18 and not qualify and only Austria in 2007 performed second to last and failed to make it through to the final. A great draw for Macedonia.    

You may think that Portugal may have finally struck gold after getting a "wildcard" and choosing to perform last but history suggests otherwise. Portugal has failed to qualify from every semi final since the system was introduced in 2004. The closest they came was finishing 11th in 2007. Surprising  only one qualifier has come from #19; Switzerland in 2005 and two of the songs performed last have failed to make it, with Poland in 2005 and Icland in 2006, both missing out.