- EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2009 BETTING
Over the past decade, the Eurovision Song Contest has become one of the biggest non-sporting events for betting. The advent on online betting and the increased interest in the contest has meant that bookmakers in many countries now allow people to place a multitude of different types of bets on the outcome of the contest. Whether you want to place a bet on the winner, who will qualify for the final or make several other types of bets, there are opportunities to make (or lose) money on the event.
This year several bookmakers and betting exchanges (where members of the public act as bookmakers and accept bets) opened their books before all the songs were chosen, such is the public interest in the competition. With all the songs now having been selected and the draw for the running order having been made, it's time to have a look at how money is being placed on the contest and how the scoreboard in Moscow will look if the voting follows the betting. Before we look at this year's contest, let's remind ourselves of the early favourites in the past few years.
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Based on the recent record, favourites more often than not fail to win the contest although a majority to end of challenging for victory. It is unusual for a favourite to flop as spectacularly as the Swiss entry in Helsinki. It's also worth noting that early favourites can get overtaken as reports from the rehearsals start to filter back. In 2006, Sweden's Carola overtook the Greek entry and Sweden's Afro-Dite made a similar late surge in 2002. In 2001, it was the home country's entry from Rollo & King that was the bookmaker's favourite on the day of the contest.
This year we are seeing one of the biggest favourites for many years and the odds being offered on Norway's entry "Fairytale" written and performed by Alexander Rybak are the shortest we've seen on any song since the contest expanded in 2004. As of now you cannot even get 2/1 on a Norwegian victory, which in a field of forty two entries, is quite remarkable. For a full set of odds, follow this link. You have to go back to 1976 and Brotherhood of Man, to see such short odds being offered in advance of the contest and that was in a field of only eighteen countries. What makes this year's favourite even more surprising is that Norway has to overcome the semi-final and we still don't know its position, in he running order for the final, assuming it qualifies, although this is a foregone conclusion based on the odds.
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As of March 22nd, these are the Top 10 favourites for victory in Moscow, and the best odds that can be found with online bookmakers.
It should be remembered that most online bookmakers are primarily servicing the U.K. market, which may slightly impact the odds being offered on the U.K. entry. Norway's Alexander Rybak is pictured right. |
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Over the last five years "All Kids Of Everything" has projected what the Eurovision scoreboards would look like if the voters followed the money. This how this year's contest would shape up, if the bookmakers, or rather the people placing bets, are right.
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Technically, this is the easier semi-final with only eighteen countries in competition, following the disqualification of the Georgian entry. If the bookmakers are to be believed, seven countries have already all but booked their places in the final, with Turkey likely to win this semi-final. Interestingly, Montenegro, who are only competing as an independent country for the third time and having failed to qualify for the last two years, are among the favourites. The return of Chiara is obviously expected to reverse Malta's recent poor record, while Sweden is a country that has never managed to do as well in the contest as the bookmakers have suggested in the years we have been following the odds. Iceland and Finland would complete a hat-trick of Nordic qualifiers if the betting can be believed. The three remaining slots in the final are wide open and while Israel, Switzerland and Portugal are currently favoured to take them, it should be remembered that al three countries have a relatively poor qualification record. Two of Israel's four semi-finalists have failed to progress while the Swiss and Portuguese have only managed to be drawn out of the golden envelopes on one occasion. Surprisingly, Armenia and Romania, which both have a 100% qualification record are seen as potentially missing out this year while Macedonia which qualified on four out of five attempts is given little chance of making it this year. |
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The second semi-final is by far a more competitive race, with nineteen countries in competition and the two favourites for victory in Moscow in the field. Both Norway and Greece are virtually guaranteed a place in the final, unless there's a shock of DJ Bobo proportions. Norway will be a runaway winner in this semi-final, scoring points from every other country, if he projection is correct, Joining these two in the final will be Azerbaijan, Denmark, Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia and perhaps most surprisingly Estonia, a country will has failed to qualify on every previous occasion it has been in the semi-final. The position of Ireland at #10 in the ranking is very precarious, as countries like Cyprus, Albania, Poland, Hungary, Latvia and Croatia are likely to benefit from either neighbourly or diaspora voting, something which not work in Ireland's favour. Ireland's odds have taken a noticeable lengthening since the draw was made, and with Ireland performing at #2 in the semi-final, this is undoubtedly another hurdle to overcome if the Irish entry is not to miss out for the second successive year. The ranking of Latvia and Croatia are surprisingly low given that both countries will start with a solid base of votes and are far more likely to qualify than the bookmakers' odds would suggest. |
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Based on what the bookmakers are telling us right now, we could be in for the most decisive win since the current voting system was introduced in 1975. The odds on a Norwegian victory suggest that their victory will be by over a hundred points and that "Fairytale" will not only become the first Eurovision entry to scored over two hundred points, it will exceed four hundred points, scoring only 12's 10's and 8's from the Eurovision voters. While such a runaway victory is unlikely to be achieved in May, a victory for any other country would be a surprise. The two countries that are most likely to launch a challenge to Norway are recent Eurovision winners Greece and Turkey. Both of these up-tempo dance songs are well ahead of the pack with the bookmakers. The two countries that will will the other spots in the Top 5 are Malta and Azerbaijan. For Chiara, it would be a 4th place to go along with her 2nd in 2005 and 3rd in 1998. Among the five automatic finalists, we get some surprising projections, compared to recent results. The United Kingdom has only finished in the Top 10 on one occasion in the last decade, but the interest in the participation of Andrew Lloyd-Webber suggests that the U.K. could once again finish on the right hand side of the scoreboard in Moscow. Meanwhile Russia which has finished in the Top 3 for the past three years and has the support of the large home crowd is not expected to finish in the Top 10, a projection which surely defies voting history. For the other automatic finalists; France and Spain there's another year missing the Top 10, while Germany is expected to finish bottom of the pack. Russia isn't the only country with a good recent record that could see a reversal of fortune in Moscow. Ukraine and Serbia could also miss out on the Top 10, if the money has been well placed, while Estonia is heading for its best result since hosting the contest in 2002. For Ireland, a possible qualification provided a projection of a position at the bottom of the scoreboard, however all that could change with a favourable draw in the final. |
We'll be taking one more look at the betting odds before we head to Moscow and checking out what unusual bets are being offered and looking at possible ways to make some money.