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  • EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2010 RUNNING ORDER REVIEW; THE FINAL

On March 23rd, the draw for the running order of the 2010 Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals was made and also the five automatic finalists were allocated slots in the draw for the Grand Final which will take place on Saturday May 29th in Oslo. In the final, Germany got the "wild card" and chose to perform at #22 in the final.

For our review of the finalists, we are looking at the history of the five automatic finalists, and the positions they have drawn in the final.

  • Semi-Final One 

2. SPAIN (Daniel Diges -  "Algo Pequeñito") For the second time in four years, Spain has drawn the short straw. As anyone who follows the Eurovision Song Contest knows, #2 in the draw is know as the "position of death" as not one of the 54 song that have performed second in the running order has won the contest. The closest that any song has come to winning from this draw was Kathy Kirby's "I Belong" back in 1965 and that finished a distant second to Luxembourg. This is Spain's second time drawing #2, an in 2007, D'Nash and "I Love You Mi Vida" finished down in 20th place in Helsinki. Since the contest expanded in 2004, the song performed at #2 has and average score of 27 points while the Spanish entries have managed an average of 42 points. Therefore based on the draw alone and counting the number of countries voting, we would project the Spanish score to be 32 points in Oslo and another bottom result.

3. NORWAY (Didrik Solli-Tangen - "My Heart Is Yours") This is Norway's fourth time being drawn at #3. In 1964, they finished 8th and in 1982 it was 12th, but the last two occasions that Norway has performed third in the running order they came last. In 1997, "San Francisco" failed to score a point and in 2004, Knut Anders Sørum, "High" only managed three points. It might be worth nothing that "High" had Swedish songwriters, something it shares with this year's Norwegian entry. Despite being early in the draw, four songs have managed to win the contest from this position and the most recent of those was Ireland's "Rock'N'Roll Kids" in 1994. The average score achieved by by songs that have had #3 in the running order in the final is 84 points and when we take into account Norway's average score in the same period, the score we project for Norway is 97 points, which should just about see it in the Top 10.   

12. UNITED KINGDOM (Josh Dubovie - "That Sounds Good To Me") Only once before has the U.K. entry had #2 in the running order and you have to go as far back as 1968 and "Congratulations" sung by Cliff Richard for the previous occasion. That famously finished second, although two winners have come from this position in the draw. Ireland's "All Kinds Of Everything" sung by Dana in 1970 and Italy's "Non Ho L'eta" sung by Gigliola Cinquetti in 1964. However, because there were considerably fewer entries in those days, #12 was very late in the draw. Indeed Ireland was last in the running order in 1970. Over the last six years the average score for the song at #12 in the draw is a healthy 116 points, but apart from last year's Top 5 finished, the average core for the U.K. entries has been low. Therefore we project a score of 76 points for the U.K., based on the draw and the country's record. That would probably see the U.K. missing out on the Top 10.  

18. FRANCE (Jessy Matador - "Allez Olla Olé") This is only France's second time drawing #18 in the running order and the only previous time they had this draw was back in 1977, when "L'Oiseau Et L'Enfant" sung by Marie Myriam, won the contest, however that was the last song on stage in London. The following year, Israel won the contest from the same draw position and in 1982, Germany scored its only victory from #18, but again that was the last song on stage. Since the contest expanded in 2004, the average score of the song at #18 in the draw is a very healthy 152 points, making it one of he best positions to draw, in recent years, however based on France's recent record, they need every advantage the can get. However when you combine the average scores of posiitio #18 and of France, you get 89 points, which may mean France is in the Top 19, for the second year in a row.

22. GERMANY (Lena Meyer-Landrut - "Satelllite")  With the chance to chose their own position in the draw, the German Head Of Delegation chose #22. While a draw in the last five poisitions in the draw is seen as an advantage, there's nothing remarkable about #22. Only the only previous occasion that Germany performed at #22, the group Wind came 16th in 1992, their worst result in three Eurovision attempts. Despite being such a late draw, only one winner has come from this position and that was Yugoslavia's "Rock Me" in 1989. The average score for #22 in the last six years is 125 points, which is not spectacular considering it is always late in the running order. When you consider the underwhelming results of  recent German entries, it brings our projected score down to 77 points, which would mean that Germany would just miss out on the Top 10.