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  • EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2010 RUNNING ORDER REVIEW; SEMI-FINAL ONE

On March 23rd, the draw for the running order of the 2010 Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals was made and also the five automatic finalists were allocated slots in the draw for the Grand Final which will take place on Saturday May 29th in Oslo. A previous draw in January had allocated countries to the first and second halves of the draw and as in previous years, some countries were allowed to choose their own positions in the draw, after being awarded a "wildcard". In this semi-final, Serbia and Belarus, drew the "wildcards".

Below we review the first semi-final and calculate the chance of each country qualifying, based on previous results. The chances of qualifying are based on the following criteria;

  • The qualification record of the country in previous semi-finals

  • The qualification record of the draw position (including consideration of last place and second last in the draw).

  • The ranking of the songs on the biggest reliable internet poll.

  • The ranking of the songs with bookmakers.

If all things were equal each country would have a 59% chance of qualifying, with ten making it through and seven losing out.

  • Semi-Final One 

1. MOLDOVA (Sun Stroke Project & Olia Tira -  "Run Away") Since making its debut in Kyiv in 2005, Moldova has had a reasonable Eurovision Song Contest record, qualifying from the semi-finals in 2005, 2007 and 2009, and only missing out in 2008. Exactly half of the songs which opened the semi-finals between 2004 and 2009, have progressed to the final. This year's Moldovan entry is now rated 11th with bookmakers and 10th in the fan poll, so it's a very marginal qualifier.   Overall chance of qualifying : 58%

2. RUSSIA (Peter Nalitch - "Lost And Forgotten") After qualifying automatically in 2009, Russia is back in the semis. The Russians have competed in the semi-final on two occasions, qualifying in both 2006 and 2008, when, Dima Bilan sang their entry. However this year, Russia faces a stiff test, only two of the eight songs performed at #2 in the draw have qualified, when both Israel and Sweden made it in 2008. To make matters worse, this year's entry is only ranked 8th in this semi, with bookmakers and 14th with fans.   Overall chance of qualifying : 55%

3. ESTONIA (Malcolm Lincoln - "Siren") Completing a trio of former Soviet republics, Estonia, qualified for the final in 2009, after five years of failure. It is going to be difficult for this year's entry to make it, based on the draw. Only one song performed at #3 in the semis, has made it to the final (Turkey in 2008) and in same year, Estonia drew #3 in the other semi, and finished second last. In 2009, the two song performed at #3 came last and second last in the semis. Estonia is rated 11th in the fan poll and 7th with bookmakers.  Overall chance of qualifying : 35%

4. SLOVAKIA (Kristina - "Horehronie") The Slovaks returned to the contest in 2009, competing in their first Eurovision semi-final, but missed out in the final, finishing second last. This is the earliest that Slovakia have performed at Eurovision. Three of the songs performed at #4 in the semis between 2004 and 2009, made the final, but Belarus and Serbia missed out in 2009. This year Slovakia is rated very highly, being the #1 song in this semi on the fan poll, and at #4 with bookmakers.  Overall chance of qualifying : 57%

5. FINLAND (Kuunkuiskaajat - "Tyolki Ellaa")  After missing out in the semis in 2004 and 2005, Lordi not only qualified in 2006, but went on to win the contest. Finland has not looked back since, making it to every subsequent final, although they finished last in 2009, having only qualified as the jury pick. Only two songs performed at #5 have made the final and bookmakers only rate the Finnish entry as #12, although the fans have it at #8. Coming after the similarly ethic Slovakian entry may also be difficult.  Overall chance of qualifying : 49%

6. LATVIA (Aisha - "What For?") Latvia has a reasonable Eurovision qualification record, with three of their five semi-finalists making it through to the big night, although they lost out badly last year, finishing last in their semi-final. Half the songs performed at #6 in the semi, have qualified, including Armenia and Norway in 2009. There's a huge difference between the bookmakers and the fan poll on this year's Latvia entry, with bookmakers having the song as the outsider to qualify, but the poll rates it at #7.    Overall chance of qualifying : 50%

7. SERBIA (Milan Stankovic - "Ovo Je Balkan")  Serbian Eurovision fortunes have gone into decline since winning with their debut entry as an independent country in 2007. The following year, Serbia came 6th and last year, they failed to make the final. Only two entries have qualified from #7 since 2004 and last year both Andorra and Cyprus missed out. The Serbian entry is rated 6th in this semi with bookmakers and in the same position with fans. This year, Serbia chose its place in the running orders after drawing a "wildcard".  Overall chance of qualifying : 57%

8. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA (Vukasin Brajic - "Thunder And Lightning") Along with Russia and Greece, Bosnia is one of three countries in this semi-final, with a 100% qualification record from the semi-finals. However, there have only been two qualifiers from this draw position in the last six years; Malta in 2004 and Ireland's Brian Kennedy in 2006. If the bookmakers and fans are to be believed, this could be the year that the Bosnia entry may struggle, with fans rating the song 16th of 17 and bookmakers rating it 10th.    Overall chance of qualifying : 53%

9. POLAND (Marcin Mrozinski - "Legenda") After three semi-final failures (two of them just missing out in 11th place), Poland finally qualified in Belgrade in 2008, only to miss out again in Moscow, last year. Since 2004, half the songs performed at #9 in the semi-finals have made the final, including both Turkey and Denmark in 2009. However Poland seems to face an uphill battle as their 2010 entry is rated at #12 in this semi in the fan poll, and is only 16th with bookmakers.   Overall chance of qualifying : 36%

 

10. BELGIUM (Tom Dice - "Me And My Guitar") No country competing in the 2010 semi-finals has as poor a qualification record as Belgium, having competed and failed in the semi-finals, ever since 2005. This is Belgium's seventh time drawing #10 in the running order and the last time they finished last in 2000. Three of the eight songs that have performed at #10 in the semis, have qualified and this year's Belgian entry is rated 3rd with  bookmakers and 4th in the fan poll.  Overall chance of qualifying : 49%

11. MALTA (Thea Garrett - "My Dream") Maltese entries have a 50/50 record in the final, qualifying in 2004 and 2009 but missing out in 2007 and 2008. Again, three of the songs performed from this position, have made it to the final, although Hungary and Bulgaria missed out in 2009. Despite making their Eurovision debut in 1971, this is Malta's first time getting #11 in the draw. The fan poll has Malta 17th and last and #13 with bookmakers. Coming after the more highly ranked entry from Belgium may be a challenge?    Overall chance of qualifying : 41%

13. ALBANIA (Juliana Pasha - "It's All About You") This will be Albania's fifth time competing in the semis and so far they have made it to the final on three occasions and missed out twice. Until last year, no song performed at #12 in the semis, made it to the final, but in a dramatic change both Iceland and Azerbaijan, qualified and made it to the Top 3 in the final. After under-going a major make-over since being selected in December, the Albanian entry is highly rated, being 2nd with bookmakers and 5th with fans.  Overall chance of qualifying : 61%

13. GREECE (Giorgos Alkaios & Friends - "Opa") For the second year in a row, Greece draws #13 in the semi and Greece has been one of the most successful countries since the Eurovision format changed in 2004, having qualified from the semi-final on the three occasions they competed. Six of the eight songs performed at #13 in the semi, have progressed and this year's Greek entry is highly rated, being first in this semi with bookmakers and second with fans. This is as close as you get to a guaranteed finalist.   Overall chance of qualifying : 92%

14. PORTUGAL (Filipa Azevedo - "Há Dias Assim")  No country has entered the contest as many times without winning as Portugal and from 2004 to 2007 their poor record continued as they failed to qualify from four semi-finals. That changed in Belgrade and in 2009, Portugal also reached the final. Six of the eight songs performed at #14 in the semis, have qualified. However with diaspora voting power reduced, Portugal may struggle to make it three in a row, being rated 9th with fans, but only 15th with bookmakers.  Overall chance of qualifying : 51%

15. FYR MACEDONIA (Gjoko Taneski - "Jas Ja Imam Silata") The Macedonians were the loser in the voting  system of the last two years when juries picked one of the finalists, as this cost them a place in the final in Belgrade and Moscow, after a previously flawless record. #15 in the draw was lucky for Macedonia in 2004 and 2005 but the overall qualification record is just over 50%. Macedonia is rated 15th with fans and 14th most likely to qualify with bookmakers.   Overall chance of qualifying : 55%

16. BELARUS (3+2 - "Butterflies") Belarus entries have a poor qualification record, with only one success in six attempts, with "Work Your Magic" in 2007. The record of songs that were performed 16th in the semi-final and those performed second to last is quite strong, with an overall success rate of over 60%, and there has been an increase in support for the Belarusian entry with bookmakers, who rate it 5th of 17 in this semi. However this has still to be reflected in fan polls, where it's 13th. Belarus had a "wildcard".   Overall chance of qualifying : 46%

17. ICELAND (Hera Björk - Je Ne Sais Quoi") One country that will be celebrating after the draw, is Iceland. Between 2005 and 2007, Iceland failed in the semi, but for the last two year's they have progressed to the Saturday night show, finishing a distant second in Moscow. Songs performed at #17 and those that are last on stage in the semi-finals have a good qualification record, although Netherlands lost out in 2009. This year's Iceland entry is 3rd in the fan poll, and 9th with bookmakers.      Overall  chance of qualifying : 65%

Based on the previous records of the countries and the running order, as well as the current fan poll and bookmakers' odds, this is the finishing order in the first semi-final

  1. Greece (92%)

  2. Iceland (65%)

  3. Albania (61%)

  4. Moldova (58%)

  5. Slovakia (57%)

  6. Serbia (57%)

  7. FYR Macedonia (55%)

  8. Russia (55%)

  9. Bosnia-Herzegovina (53%)

  10. Portugal (51%)

  11. Latvia (50%)

  12. Belgium (49%)

  13. Finland (49%)

  14. Belarus (46%)

  15. Malta (41%)

  16. Poland (36%)

  17. Estonia (35%)