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  • EUROVISION SONG CONTEST 2010 RUNNING ORDER REVIEW; SEMI-FINAL TWO

On March 23rd, the draw for the running order of the 2010 Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals was made and also the five automatic finalists were allocated slots in the draw for the Grand Final which will take place on Saturday May 29th in Oslo. A previous draw in January had allocated countries to the first and second halves of the draw and as in previous years, some countries were allowed to choose their own positions in the draw, after being awarded a "wildcard". In this semi-final, Switzerland and Bulgaria, drew the "wildcards".

Below we review the first semi-final and calculate the chance of each country qualifying, based on previous results. The chances of qualifying are based on the following criteria;

  • The qualification record of the country in previous semi-finals

  • The qualification record of the draw position (including consideration of last place and second last in the draw).

  • The ranking of the songs on the biggest reliable internet poll.

  • The ranking of the songs with bookmakers.

If all things were equal each country would have a 59% chance of qualifying, with ten making it through and seven losing out.

  • Semi-Final Two 

1. LITHUANIA (Inculto -  "Eastern European Funk") Since making their Eurovision debut in 1994, this will be the third time that a Lithuanian entry has opened the show, following the finals in 1999 and 2009. Neither provided a good result and the Baltic republic has only qualified from two out of five semi-finals, most famously with LT United in 2006. Half of the songs which opened the semi-finals since 2004 have qualified. Lithuania is not ranked highly this year, being 13th with bookmakers and 15th with fans.   Overall chance of qualifying : 38%

2. ARMENIA (Eva Rivas - "Apricot Stone") Since débuting in Athens, Armenia has qualified for every final, and only barely missed out on the Top 10 in the final in Moscow, having made it in the three previous years. This year, Armenia has had a poor draw as only two of the eight songs performed at #2 in the running order have qualified. However this year's entry is well regarded, being third in this semi with fans, and 5th most likely to qualify with bookmakers.  Overall chance of qualifying : 77%

Brushstroke Flag Israel

3. ISRAEL (Harel Skaat - "Milim" (Words) It's yet another early draw for Israel, who haven't been in the second half of the running order, since the final of 2003. This is the third time for Israel to perform at #3, following 1992 and the 2006 final. Three of five Israeli semi-finalists, progressed, but this is another tough draw as only one of the eight songs performed from this position, has qualified since 2004. However this year, the Israeli entry is very highly ranked, being rated 2nd in this semi, with both fans and bookmakers.  Overall chance of qualifying : 64%

4. DENMARK (Chanée and N'Evergreen - "In A Moment Like This") This is Denmark's third time performed at #4 in the running order, following their songs in the final in both 1965 and 1984. Three of five Danish semi-finalists have made it through to the final since 2004 and  three of the songs performed at #4 in the semis progressed to the Saturday night show. While Denmark may be leading the fan poll in this semi, it is only ranked 6th with bookmakers.  Overall chance of qualifying : 69%

5. SWITZERLAND (Michael von der Heide - "Il Pleut De L'or")  This will be the third Swiss entry to be performed at #5, and the last time, in 1998, Switzerland entered up pointless and last. Only once in five attempts, has Switzerland made in the final and for the last three years, they missed out, despite being among the favourites to qualify. This year, there is no pressure on the Swiss performer as the song is only ranked 14th with bookmakers and 11th with fans and only two songs performed at #5 have qualified.  Overall chance of qualifying : 32%

6. SWEDEN (Anna Bergendahl - "This Is My Life") For the third year in a row, Sweden gets an early draw in the semi-final and this is the third Swedish entry to be performed at #6, following their songs in 1962 and 1987. Sweden is one of seven countries in this semi-final, with a 100% qualification record, and hasn't missed out on a Eurovision final since 1976. Half the songs performed at #6 in the semi, have qualified and while fans rate Sweden 6th in this semi, bookmakers only have them scraping through in 10th.    Overall chance of qualifying : 74%

7. AZERBAIJAN (Safura - "Drip Drop")  This will be the third Azeri entry, but having made the Top 10 in both 2008 and 2009, Azerbaijan can count itself lucky to be competing in Oslo, following a voting scandal, last year. This is the second time Azerbaijan has drawn #7. It was the position in which they made their made their debut in 2008. However that was only one of two songs to have qualified from this draw. While a lot of money has been placed on Azerbaijan, to make it the overall favourite, fans only rate it 7th in this semi.  Overall chance of qualifying : 77%

8. UKRAINE (Alyosha - "Sweet People") Having withdrawn one chosen entry and had another one disqualified, Ukraine now sees itself drawn after two other female sung ballads. Ukraine has qualified for every final, since making their debut in 2003, however #8 has been a poor draw in the semi-finals, with only two qualifiers, including Ireland in 2006. The new Ukrainian entry has yet to make any impact on the fan poll, but bookmakers see it as the 7th most likely qualifier from this semi-final.    Overall chance of qualifying : 51%

Brushstroke Flag Netherlands

9. NETHERLANDS (Sieneke - "Ik Ben Verliefd (Sha-la-lie)") The Dutch entry qualified from the first Eurovision semi-final in 2004, but in the last five years, the Netherlands had an early exit from the contest. The omens aren't good, because on the only previous occasion the Dutch entry was performed  at #9, "My Impossible Dream" failed to progress in 2005.  However since 2004, half the songs performed at #9 in the semis have made the final. While the Dutch entry 16th with fans, it's the bookmakers rank outside to qualify.   Overall chance of qualifying : 28%

 

10. ROMANIA (Paul Seling & Ovi - "Playing With Fire") Romania is another country with a 100% qualification record, although their entries have failed to make any impression in the last three Eurovision finals. Three of the eight songs that have performed at #10 in the semis, have qualified and in 2009, Israel qualified but Slovenia missed out from this draw. This year's Romanian entry is rated 9th with bookmakers and 10th in the fan poll.  Overall chance of qualifying : 65%

11. SLOVENIA (Ansambel Roka Žlindre & Kalamari - "Narodnozabavni Rock" (Popular Folk Rock) This is Slovenia's first time drawing #11 and fewer countries have a poor qualification record, with only one of their six entries making it out of the semi-finals, since 2004. Three of the songs performed from this position, have made it to the final.  If the fan poll and bookmakers are to be believed, Slovenia is facing another early exit in Oslo, as the song is rated 16th of 17 in both rankings    Overall chance of qualifying : 21%

13. IRELAND (Niamh Kavanagh - "It's For You") This draw has had mixed results for Ireland. Dana won in 1970 with "All Kinds Of Everything" and Sheeba came 5th in 1981, but "Without Your Love" got Ireland relegated in 2001 and Dustin crashed out in the 2008 semi-final. Only one of four Irish semi-finalists has qualified. Until 2009, no song performed at #12 in the semis, had qualified, but that changed with Iceland and Azerbaijan in Moscow. Ireland's entry is rated 8th in this semi with both fans and bookmakers.  Overall chance of qualifying : 47%

13. BULGARIA (Miro - "Angel Si Ti" (You Are An Angel)) Bulgaria made their Eurovision debut in 2005 and has only made it to the final, on one occasion, in 2007. This is the third year in a a draw that Bulgaria has been drawn towards the middle of the running order. Six of the eight songs performed at #13 in the semi, have made the final, although in Oslo, this song comes after a break. This year, Bulgaria is 13th on the fan poll, and 15th with fans.   Overall chance of qualifying : 39%

14. CYPRUS (Jon Lilygreen & The Islanders - "Life Looks Better In Spring)  This will be the third time Cyprus will perform at #14, and co-incidentally, their previous songs in this position, were also sung by U.K. based performers, In 1999, Marlain finished second last, but in 2004, Lisa Andreas, gave the Cypriots their only semi-final qualifier. Six of the eight songs performed at #14 in the semis have qualified. This year, Cyprus rates 11th in this semi with bookmakers and 9th with fans.   Overall chance of qualifying : 52%

15. CROATIA (Feminnem - "Lako Je Sve" (Everything Is Easy)) This will be Croatia's first time performing at #15 and more remarkably, Feminnem will go into the Eurovision history books as the first group to represent two different countries in the contest. Croatia has a great qualification record, only missing out in 2008, but last year they need the jury's help to make the final. Six of the eight songs performed at #15 in the semis have qualified and the Croatian song is rated 4th with both fans and bookmakers.    Overall chance of qualifying : 81%

16. GEORGIA (Sofia Nizharadze - "Shine") Having had their entry disqualified from the contest in Moscow, Georgia return to the contest for the third year, hoping to maintain their 100% qualification record. The record of songs performed 16th in the semi-final or those performed second to last is quite strong, but this year's Georgian entry is not making a major impact in the early rankings, being rated only 12th with both bookmakers and fans.   Overall chance of qualifying : 63%

17. TURKEY (MaNga - "We Could Be The Same") This is Turkey's first time drawing #17 and heir first time closing the contest. Turkish entries have a 100% qualification record, although the impact of their diaspora may not been as important with the advent of 50/50 voting. The entries performed at #17 and those that are performed last in the semi-finals have a qualification record of 70%. The Turkish entry is 5th in this semi with fans, and ranked third with bookmakers.      Overall  chance of qualifying : 82%

Based on the previous records of the countries and the running order, as well as the current fan poll and bookmakers' odds, this is the finishing order in the second semi-final

  1. Turkey (82%)

  2. Croatia (81%)

  3. Azerbaijan (77%)

  4. Armenia (77%)

  5. Sweden (74%)

  6. Denmark (69%)

  7. Romania (65%)

  8. Israel (64%)

  9. Georgia (63%)

  10. Cyprus (52%)

  11. Ukraine (51%)

  12. Ireland (47%)

  13. Bulgaria (39%)

  14. Lithuania (38%)

  15. Switzerland (32%)

  16. Netherlands (28%)

  17. Slovenia (21%)

The second semi-final is by far the tougher of the two semi-finals, when you compare the bookmakers overall odds and the fan rankings. Unlike semi-final one, where there is one virtually guaranteed finalist (Greece) there in no country with one foot already in the final from this selection. Ireland loses out primarily because of a poor qualification record and not getting the best draw positions, while six of the Top 10 are helped by their previous qualification history. It is worth remembering that every country that had a previous 100% qualification record going into the semi-finals in Moscow, made it through to the 2009 final.