Eurovision 2010 logo

Since 2003, "All Kinds Of Everything" has been looking at the bookmakers' odds on the Eurovision Song Contest, analysing what the scoreboard would look like of the bookmakers are right and trying to find the best value for money.

Before we stat this year's review it might be worth looking back at the last decade and checking how reliable a guide the bookmakers' odds provide to the eventual result.

  • 2000 Estonia's "Once In A Lifetime" and the U.K. entry "Don't Play That Song Again" were the favourites for the contest in Stockholm. In the weeks building up to the contest, Denmark's entry "Fly On The Wings" Of Love" could be backed at at 80/1, however good reviews from the rehearsal saw it back down to 20/1 on the day of the contest.

  • 2001 Greece's entry "Die For You" was the pre-contest favourite although during Eurovision week, host country Denmark, displaced it. Few saw Estonia's winner "Everybody" as a threat at it could be backed at 33/1 on the day of the contest.

  • 2002 Strange as it may now seem Germany's "I Can't Live Without Music" and Spain's "entry "Europe's Living A Celebration" traded places at the top of the betting for the contest in Tallinn. There was a late run by the host country's entry, but "Runaway" lost out to Latvia's "I Wanna" which could be backed at 16/1.

  • 2003  The fuss of t.A.T.u's participation made Russia's entry one of the hottest favourites on years, with Spain's "Dime" the closest challenger. Turkey's winner "Every Way That I Can" saw steady betting during Eurovision week, ending at 14/1.

  • 2004 Once again, Greece was the bookmakers favourite in the run up to the contest although there was a late run of money on Serbia's "Lane Moje" and Ukraine's "Wild Dances" which could still be back at 8/1 just hours before its victory.

  • 2005 It was third time lucky for a Greek favourite, when "My Number One" triumphed in Kyiv, ending up at 5/1 on the day.

  • 2006 Once again the Greek entry was the favourite in the build-up to the contest, but "Everything" was displaced by Sweden's "Invincible" in the last couple days. Finland's winner "Hard Rock Hallelujah" also saw some late money going on it, but it could still be backed at 10/1.

  • 2007 Serbia's "Molitva" was the narrow favourite for the event in Helsinki, until the day of the contest when Ukraine's "Dancing Lhasa Tumbai" took over.

  • 2008 The return of Russia' Dima Bilan to the competition meant that "Believe" was another hot favourite that won, but few made much money, with the best late odds being only 5/2.

  • 2009 From the moment the bookmakers published heir odds, Norway's "Fairytale" was the hottest favourite in decades, but once again, few made much money, due to the very short odds being offered.        

This year some of the betting exchanges started opening their books in early March, when many of the entries for Oslo were still not chosen. There was certainly a lot of volatility in the market, with Israel taking an early lead, only to be quickly replaced by Azerbaijan, which in turn was overtaken by Germany. While these three countries still lead the betting, it is clear that unlike the last two years, we are not going to have a red hot favourite as we head to Oslo.

With the expansion of the contest to three shows, there are now many additional bets that you can make. You can bet on which countries will win the two semi-finals, or back a country to qualify. You can even put money on a country not qualifying, and to see the all the odds on offer, Oddschecker, is the best single source. 

 SEMI ONE 

To choose which ten countries will qualify from the first semi-final, we have looking at the odds on offer from betting exchanges on the limited number of bookmakers that are taking bets on this type of bet. We've then converted the odds into a "probability rating" to get our ten qualifiers. We've also looked at the best odds available to win the semi and to qualify.  Based on the current odds, here's the ranking for the first semi;

 COUNTRY  PROBABILITY  TO WIN THE SEMI   TO QUALIFY


Giorgos Alkaios & Friends: Favourite in Semi One.

Greece is clearly the one to beat in this semi-final as it's not only a ridiculous price to qualify (you have to bet twenty to win one) but also the favourite to win. Interestingly Russia and Bosnia, who have never failed to qualify from the semis are much lower ranked and Bosnia may miss out this year if the bookmakers are right. Meanwhile Slovakia and Belgium, who have never qualified, look likely to make it this year and even Belarus and Estonia which have very poor qualification records may make the final in Oslo.

 1 Greece  89% 10/3 1/20
 2 Slovakia  78% 9/2 1/5
 3 Albania  77% 12/1 2/9
 4 Belgium  75% 8/1 1/4
 5 Belarus  69% 10/1 4/11
 6 Serbia  61% 20/1 8/15
 7 Iceland  61% 14/1 8/15
 8 Moldova  60% 16/1 4/7
 9 Russia  58% 25/1 8/13
10 Estonia  56% 40/1 4/6
11 Bosnia-Herz.  52% 40/1 4/5
12 Finland  52% 66/1 4/5
13 Malta  52% 40/1 4/5
14 Latvia  43% 100/1 6/5
15 Portugal  38% 100/1 5/4
16 FYR Macedonia  38% 150/1 6/4
17 Poland  38% 150/1 6/4

 SEMI TWO 

Once again, for the second semi-final, we are looking at the odds on offer and converting the odds into a "probability rating" to get our ten qualifiers. While semi-final one. Interestingly, the ten countries that are expected to qualify from this semi, have put a gap between themselves and the seven predicted non-qualifiers and unlike in semi one where every country seems to have a chance of making the final, the bottom four countries in semi two, seem to have an almost impossible task to qualify.  Based on the current odds, here's the ranking for the first semi;

 COUNTRY  PROBABILITY  TO WIN THE SEMI   TO QUALIFY


Safura from Azerbaijan: Favourite in Semi Two.

If you combine the overall winning odds from the two semi finals, it is clear that the second semi final has a higher overall standard, than the first. With seven countries that have never failed to qualify, highly ranked entries from Israel, Croatia and Denmark and a former Eurovision winner from Ireland, someone is going to lose out. Right now the bookmakers are saying that Georgia will not qualify, for the first time and Cyprus which has done well on several fan polls may also miss out.
 1 Azerbaijan  89% 11/4 1/20
 2 Israel  85% 4/1 1/10
 3 Denmark  80% 7/1 1/6
 4 Armenia  78% 9/1 1/5
 5 Turkey  77% 11/1 2/9
 6 Croatia  77% 11/1 2/9
 7 Sweden  70% 22/1 1/3
 8 Ukraine  67% 33/1 2/5
 9 Ireland  67% 22/1 2/5
10 Romania  61% 40/1 8/15
11 Georgia  51% 66/1 5/6
12 Lithuania  51% 66/1 5/6
13 Cyprus  47% 66/1 1/1
14 Bulgaria  23% 125/1 3/1
15 Switzerland  23% 125/1 3/1
16 Netherlands  16% 150/1 5/1
17 Slovenia  16% 150/1 5/1

 THE FINAL   

If we assume that the bookmakers get it right and the ten countries that they predict will qualify from each semi final, then we are able to speculate on how the final scoreboard will look in Oslo. For this we've looked at each country's odds on winning the contest and then allocated points based on these odds. Here's the projected final scoreboard and the best price you can currently get for each song;

 COUNTRY  PROJECTED POINTS  TO WIN THE FINAL


Lena Meyer-Landrut from Germany is joint favourite to win Eurovision 2010.

For the first time in several years, two songs are neck and neck at the top of the bookmakers lists and if the votes in May follow he money, Azerbaijan and Germany will be fighting it out in Oslo. Indeed, so close are the odds, that when you combine them, we have a statistical tie, which we've only broken with the fact that Azerbaijan is favoured by more bookmakers than is Germany. Should there be an actual tie in the contest itself, it would be broken by which song received points from more countries.

While this is he first time that Azerbaijan has been favourite to win the Eurovision Song Contest, you have to go back to 2002 and Corinna May's "I Can't Live Without Music" for the last time Germany was in this position.

Interestingly, only one country (Greece) competing in the first semi-final, makes the overall Top 10 and this is the lowest a Greek song has rated with bookmakers since 2003.   

 1 Azerbaijan  350 4/1
 2 Germany  350 4/1
 3 Israel  265 8/1
 4 Denmark  179 14/1
 5 Armenia  154 14/1
 6 Croatia  146 16/1
 7 Norway  142 18/1
 8 Greece 100 25/1
 9 Sweden  79 33/1
10 Turkey  67 40/1
11 Slovakia 50 40/1
12 Ireland 49 66/1
13 Belgium 44 50/1
14 Belarus 35 66/1
15 Spain 32 66/1
15 France 32 66/1
17 Albania 30 80/1
18 Ukraine 25 80/1
18 Romania 25 80/1
18 Iceland 25 100/1
21 Serbia 23 100/1
22 Moldova 18 125/1
23 Russia 16 125/1
23 United Kingdom 16 200/1
25 Estonia 16 200/1

 BEST VALUE BETS 

We've always given our visitors our tips for what we think are the best value bets. In semi one, we think the bookmakers have more or less got it right, however if there is to be a surprise, then it could be with Slovakia. With an early draw and no major neighbourly support this isn't the sure-fire qualifier that most people believe and you can get 10/3 on Slovakia not qualifying at Betfred. 

Semi Two is a lot harder to call, but there is one song where we don't agree with the bookmakers. Georgia has a late draw and four neighbours to support it and it has a lot better chance of qualifying that some songs rated above it. At 5/6 to qualify, to won't make much money, but it's worth a sizeable flutter. Indeed the 66/1 odds on it winning the semi are quit tempting for a each-way bet. In contrast, Sweden's early draw and rather ordinary song may see them struggle this year at at 9/4, a bet against them qualifying might yeild dividends.

As for the winner, in such an open year, it's far too early to to make may bets. A lot will come down to the live performance and the running order. Right now Romania at 80/1 looks a great bet, but perhaps only as an each way option.

We will refresh the odds and do another projection before the shows in Oslo and also on the Friday before the final, when we should know who are the serious contenders for victory in Oslo.